It uses your recent (last 2, 5, 10, 30 miles, I don't know) mpg. So if you drive like a maniac five miles before you fill up, the range will be way down.
This.Hasn't it been colder than normal down there lately? If so your most recent mileage was probably less than when the temps were more normal and that would cause the range to be lower. We've been down to -20F here of late and I can confirm that my range estimate is a lot lower than it was in the fall!
Could this thinking be the reason manufactures no longer put Oil pressure, coolant temp and voltage gauges in our vehicles anymore? Causes too many questions. )