33.58 Percent Increase In Hybrid Registrations; 24.34 Percent For Diesel

[JeffB]

It looks like diesels are in demand in the U.S. New vehicle registrations are jumping despite a very sluggish economy.

http://www.hybridcars.com/33-58-percent-increase-in-hybrid-registrations-24-34-percent-for-diesel/

Clean diesel car registrations increased by 24.3 percent in the U.S. from 2010 through 2012 following similar trends of double-digit diesel car sale increases throughout the country, according to new data compiled for the Diesel Technology Forum.

...


This new data of total national vehicle registrations coincides with what weve been seeing in the monthly auto sales clean diesel and hybrid cars are showing consistent and impressive growth patterns in the U.S., said Allen Schaeffer, the executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum. This consistent growth in clean diesel registrations in the last three years is particularly noteworthy since it has occurred during an economic recession, the availability of an extremely large number of fuel efficient vehicles, which was topped off by some of the highest diesel fuel prices in U.S. history. Even in the face of these significant challenges, diesel buyers are seeing the big picture and long-term value by investing in record numbers of clean diesel cars and SUVs.


Diesel car and SUV registrations increased from 640,779 in 2010 to 796,794 at the end of 2012 a 24.34 percent increase.

...In contrast, the total car and SUV registrations in the U.S. increased by just 2.75 percent during the same period.


When all passenger vehicle registrations are included cars, SUVs, pickup trucks and vans the diesels currently account for 6,658,399 vehicles while hybrids account for 2,295,500 vehicles throughout the U.S, Schaeffer said.


Schaeffer also noted that there currently are 27 diesels available in the U.S. market compared to 46 hybrids.


While total diesel vehicle registrations are slightly less than three percent in the U.S., auto analysts and market researchers virtually all agree diesel sales are going to increase significantly as the number of new diesels made in available domestically will more than double in the next two years, Schaeffer said. Some analysts predict diesel sales will reach 10 percent of the U.S. market by 2020. In addition, clean diesel vehicle sales are also projected to increase as the U.S. moves toward increasing fuel efficiency standards to 54.5 mpg by 2025. Because clean diesels are 20 to 40 more efficient than gasoline engines, diesel cars and trucks will play a major role in achieving these new standards. And an interesting wild card will be the emerging market domestically and internationally of clean diesel hybrid vehicles that will achieve astounding mpg numbers. ...

 

[thaxman]

It should be noted though, that with more than 14M vehicles sold in 2012, that 796,794 isn't much - like 5%.

In fact the more I reread the article, the more number-manipulation I see. Ignore the man behind the curtain - its just the journalist.

 

[ukulele]

Numbers (and this article) aside, when I drive I spy maybe a VW Golf TDI or a MB Blu-Tec like once a week on the roads here in NJ. I drive a lot so I don't think that's a lot of diesels at all. Now, I see like Priuses everyday, probably 100/week on the road. Moreover, every single vehicle I have been interested in in the last 7 years, none of them have a diesel variant of which I would've really considered if there was one. Can't beat the towing capacities on those suckers.

 

[Wishmaster]

There is definitely growing demand for diesels in North America... shown by the many manufacturers bringing diesel versions to market now or very soon. There is some overlap in these articles... but you get the idea.

BMW 3 series diesel - http://www.businessinsider.com/video-bmw-reveals-deisel-powered-3-series-328d-2013-4

Chevy Cruise diesel - http://www.theprovince.com/cars/Chevy+Cruze+Turbo+Diesel+gets+high+marks/8298976/story.html

5 new diesels coming to North America - http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/...five-new-diesel-models-coming-to-america.html

BMW, Audi & Mercedes to offer Diesels - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/bmw-audi-bring-more-diesels-to-u-s-as-demand-rises.html

 

[JeffB]

It should be noted though, that with more than 14M vehicles sold in 2012, that 796,794 isn't much - like 5%.

In fact the more I reread the article, the more number-manipulation I see. Ignore the man behind the curtain - its just the journalist.

I get that the numbers are still low, especially compared to the European market, but that's really just a function of how low they were a few years ago. I don't really see where there's any tricky manipulation of the numbers by the author of that article.

The numbers were very low a few years ago because the changes in the EPA pollution regulations and in the new ultra low sulphur fuel requirements pulled the rug out from under the diesel market at the time. Auto makers pulled their diesels off the market as they had to reengineer them to meet the new government standards. They also had to assess whether they even wanted to be in the market given the uncertainties over how much it would cost to do so, how much the new fuel would cost and what all that would do to the demand for diesels, particularly given the government push and subsidies for electrics, hybrids, fuel cell and natural gas vehicles. The refineries also would be forced to retool their refineries to meet the new standards.

I remember reading an article around that time about Mazda bringing a version of their European Mazda5 diesel to the U.S. very soon. I read up on it a bit and thought it would be the perfect vehicle for our growing family. We had a minivan, but our 5 passenger Subaru was suddenly too little for us when we had our 4th child. My wife said she wanted a vehicle with sliding doors so the kids wouldn't be banging doors with other cars in the parking lots. Another minivan seemed like overkill to me, though. Gas mileage is poor and the garage is small for two regular sized vehicles, much less two full size mini-vans. A small Mazda5 diesel that got 40+ mpg seemed like just the ticket.

But then the government announced their new clean diesel regulations and Mazda announced they were putting their plans for bringing the Mazda5 diesel on hold. I believe every other car company pulled their diesel passenger cars off the market before the new regs hit as well. Eventually the high end vehicles solved the issues necessary to meet the new government regs, so we got Mercedes, Audi and BMW diesels but Volkswagon was the only manufacturer that came in with a mid-market diesel. I believe there were a couple of years with no diesel passenger cars at all.

The numbers sold were pretty small, but I think the author's numbers about the growth rate were accurate:

Diesel car and SUV registrations increased from 640,779 in 2010 to 796,794 at the end of 2012 a 24.34 percent increase.

5% of the market may seem pretty miniscule, but I think it's still strong enough to keep a self-sustaining infrastructure. I imagine gas stations average 10 pumps or more, so 5% should make it reasonable for every other station to have a diesel pump. That's even more true if the number of new diesel cars & SUVs continue to grow at a rapid clip, and 12% per year is pretty rapid. Those numbers are also much higher if you include the bigger, heavier pickups and vans:

When all passenger vehicle registrations are included cars, SUVs, pickup trucks and vans the diesels currently account for 6,658,399 vehicles while hybrids account for 2,295,500 vehicles throughout the U.S, Schaeffer said.

If the author is correct that Some analysts predict diesel sales will reach 10 percent of the U.S. market by 2020" most stations should have a diesel pump or two. I have no reason to doubt him or them. I have no indication that he made those numbers up, and more car companies are indeed bringing new diesels to market which should boost sales. They also have every reason to price them aggressively given the ever rising government mandates for fleet fuel economy and given the fact that the diesels are some 30% to 40% more efficient than their gasoline counterparts. They will have to surcharge the gas guzzlers and subsidize the fuel sippers to meet those fleet mpg mandates.

At least that's how it looks to me.

 

[JeffB]

There is definitely growing demand for diesels in North America... shown by the many manufacturers bringing diesel versions to market now or very soon. There is some overlap in these articles... but you get the idea.

Thanks for the links Wishmaster.

Here's a pretty decent video on the Mazda Skyactive D

and a couple of other articles

Mazda Skyactiv-G and Skyactiv-D Engines in Detail

"Here, too, fuel-economy claims are impressive: 31 to 33 mpg city and 43 mpg highway for a Mazda 6 with the 2.2-liter diesel. Does an over-40-mpg family sedan sound good to anyone else?"

Mazda Skyactiv-D Engine