2010 Mazda3S - water leak? Found moisture in spare tire well

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2018 Mazda CX-5 GT
Wondering what the cause of this could be - it's never had a moisture issue before. My wife accidentally broke the roof antenna while removing snow. I taped it together using gorilla tape.

I recently opened the cover to the spare tire compartment and noticed moisture in the mat under the spare tire. Could it be the broken antenna? I would think the wire is routed through the headliner which would be the shortest route to the radio.

Any thoughts?
 
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