'08 1.5AT (DE): Mystery oil(?) leak from under transmission

calikura

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2 1.5 (DE)
A week ago I discovered oil accumulating right in that circular gap in the transmission housing (see attachment - it's an old photo however and does not show any leaks). I can't quite identify what might be leaking to cause oil to accumulate there (and nowhere else). It looks like old oil, forms a bit of a sludge over a couple days if I don't wipe it up.

My month old oil looks relatively fresh on the dipstick. The leaking fluid in question does not look like ATF, power steering or brake fluid, and their levels haven't dropped. Strangely enough, it seems to leak/accumulate faster when the AC is on full blast in the hot and humid afternoon. I know that it is perfectly normal for water to drip from a car under such circumstances, but.. it's an oily sludge in that hole, and water if it does drip tends to fall from much closer to the firewall.

I got a new valve cover gasket done two weeks ago, engine block is dry. Any suspects on which seal it might be this time?
 

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