Cars equipped with Skyactiv technology offer consumer benefits that include best-in-class fuel economy, higher torque, and more quick and linear response. Because their vehicles are lighter, they also handle better. The 2016 Mazda MX-5 is a testament to this technology’s efficacy, and is reflected in the essentialism of its design and performance. Little changes inspired by Skyactiv, such reducing five lug nuts in the wheel to four, serve to reduce weight and streamline design. But there is another reason Mazda chose to focus on perfecting existing engineering and automotive design rather than inventing new technology – they weren’t required to.
Large volume manufacturers don’t have that advantage. They needed to introduce hybrids, purchase zero-emissions credits, or pay fines to meet CARB’s zero-emissions quotas. However, the noose is tightening on emissions standards for all manufacturers.
Regardless of a manufacturer’s sales volume, California will begin requiring a percentage of vehicles be zero emissions starting in 2018. This means full battery electric or hydrogen for large volume manufacturers. Intermediate Volume Manufacturers may still be able to get away with selling only hybrids or plug-in hybrids to meeting quotas. CARB is in the process of changing their manufacturer classification status formula in 2018, and it’s unclear if Mazda will retain IVM classification.
The news gets worse.
The next CAF target of 54.5 for mpg by 2025 looms like a dark cloud on the horizon for all auto makers. At a current average of 42.3 mpg, it’s not clear how much more efficient Mazda can make their ICE vehicles without costly electrification of the powertrain, which could be financially damning for the Japanese brand. It’s understood that 100% efficiency isn’t possible, but initial laboratory engine test results from EERE’s Vehicle Technologies Office and the national laboratories indicate that for passenger vehicles, fuel economy improvements of more than 50% are possible.
The upcoming 2016 Mazda CX-9 three-row crossover is reported to have best in class fuel economy of a combined 25 mpg. But if this vehicle proves popular–which likely it will be because its style is more sporty and aggressive than what you see in the segment–will that success come at the cost of CAFE compliance? To that end, Mazda is looking at even more obscure ways to cut weight, reduce friction, and managing thermal efficiencies on their engines to ensure that when fuel is being utilized that the heat can be used as an energy source to move the vehicle forward.
But even the most talented engineers at Mazda may not be able to appease CARB, who is closing the door is closing on the ultra fuel-efficient ICE-only strategy. Eventually all except boutique brands will be required to sell zero-emissions vehicles, or at the very minimum, a hybrid powertrain that significantly improves gas mileage for the vehicle type and size.
Rather than build, Mazda will likely buy that technology, and has already inked a partnership with Toyota to explore borrowing their battery and hydrogen technology. In Japan they already sell a hybrid Mazda3 variant using technology and parts gained from a partnership with Toyota. In exchange Toyota likely will reap the benefit of some of the most advanced engine, structural, and handling technology on the market. For manufacturer, that’s a double edged sword. On the one hand they get expensive, and mature technology at a fraction of the price, but they also lose what makes them unique in the marketplace, says Eric Lyman, Vice President of Industry Insights for TrueCar. That conundrum will be seen with the upcoming Fiat 124 Spyder, he says, which is a rebadged Mazda MX-5. But that’s the deal Mazda has to make if they want to stay in this game.