Off Topic Investment Thread

Chocolate

Harpy Eagle
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2019 CX-5 AWD
Remember that thread back in August where we discussed Mazda stock? Somehow Tesla stock has more than doubled in the same time period. Crazy. Wouldn't have called that, no position.

It is mildly entertaining to read the posts and rage on Twitter by those who got destroyed by shorting the stock. So many arguments and it doesn't matter.

 
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Avoidin Deer

Zoom Zoom, baby
Contributor
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Central Virginia
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2019 CX-5 Reserve
Remember that thread back in August where we discussed Mazda stock? Somehow Tesla stock has more than doubled in the same time period. Crazy. Wouldn't have called that, no position.
I sure do. I have been tracking the stock since then. It went up quite a bit but came right back down.

Back in 1990 or so, a group of us from work formed an Investment Club. We created a partnership, registered with an industry group, chucked money into the pot (and made monthly contributions), and each took an industry to analyze and to make investment recommendations. After 4 years or so, we were about where we started.

Those who make money at trading are better judges of human nature than I am. I recall spiting on the ground at the idea of bottled water ("It vends for a fraction of a cent at the faucet!!!") and Starbucks ("No one will pay that much when there's a 7-11 on every corner!!"). Look at what people have paid for Google, when it had no plans on how to turn a profit. In late 2017, its P/E was almost 60!!!

I think of some of this stuff as Beanie Babies...2¢ worth of fabric and a few navy beans worth $250 just because someone will pay that for it.
 
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2013 Mazda CX-5 Sport FWD Auto
Those who make money at trading are better judges of human nature than I am.
Same here, buddy. Gave individual trades a shot once and let it go after about 6 months. Broke even due to one good bet. Never again. From here on out it’s index funds with rock bottom expense ratios. Diversification is key. 30% large caps, 20% mid, 20% small, 20% international equites and 10% US bonds. ~30 years until anticipated retirement so just rebalance every so often, up the bond exposure as I age and let it ride.
 

Avoidin Deer

Zoom Zoom, baby
Contributor
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Central Virginia
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2019 CX-5 Reserve
Same here, buddy. Gave individual trades a shot once and let it go after about 6 months. Broke even due to one good bet. Never again. From here on out it’s index funds with rock bottom expense ratios. Diversification is key. 30% large caps, 20% mid, 20% small, 20% international equites and 10% US bonds. ~30 years until anticipated retirement so just rebalance every so often, up the bond exposure as I age and let it ride.
Good for you.
Place your bets and let them ride!!!

I retired a few years ago, and was shocked that since I was your age, the advice for retirees has gone from "CDs and Bonds" to "At Least 50% Stocks." You gotta have time to recover from bad events. I guess there is no One Size Fits All.

A few months ago I had a long conversation with a Voya rep regarding a question on my account, and we got on the subject of investment mix. Attached is a document he sent me. They conceived their own investment strategy...it's detailed on Page 5. Some manage it on their own, some pay to have Voya do the periodic remix. This is not a product, it's a strategy and a methodology.

There are 3 different Models from which to choose. Each Model has a Base mix [more dollars in equities] and a Defensive mix [fewer dollars in equities]. You can read the details of the components.

Their Remix Trigger is quarterly corporate earnings reports.
>If there has been an aggregate year-over-year earnings decline, the investments go to (or stay at in the case of consecutive negative year-over-year earnings) the Defensive mix.
>If the news is that earnings are flat or have grown, the investments go to (or stay at in the case of consecutive flat/positive year-over-year earnings) to the Base mix.

Although the driving events behind reported earnings might have happened up to 6 months prior (early in the previous quarter), the Voya guy pointed out that this is not a market timing tool. You're not gonna hit the peaks and valleys...ever.

So maybe this will be another tool in your kit. I'm not giving advice. I only throw this out because you mentioned how you are diversifying and that you change the mix every once in a while, and I recently came upon this. This might give you ideas on other market buckets or on defined remix triggers. It is an interesting read. But as you know, there are tons of "methods" out there.
 

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Avoidin Deer

Zoom Zoom, baby
Contributor
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Central Virginia
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2019 CX-5 Reserve
Why is a house dysfunctional?
1-Paid agents who are for the most part hobbyists, who are not professionals, and who seem to have no idea as to duty to the client.

2-A loan process that never seems to go right the first time. How is it that mortgage companies who are merchants in the trade and have been in that trade for years (or longer) always seem to come back for more information?
 
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CX5 GT-R
1-Paid agents who are for the most part hobbyists, who are not professionals, and who seem to have no idea as to duty to the client.

2-A loan process that never seems to go right the first time. How is it that mortgage companies who are merchants in the trade and have been in that trade for years (or longer) always seem to come back for more information?
I have only purchased 1 house (and hopefully my last), but the process was simple, straight forward, and I found no fault with any of it?
 
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2019 CX-5 Signature
I have only purchased 1 house (and hopefully my last), but the process was simple, straight forward, and I found no fault with any of it?
I agree. I've purchased 4 and have always dealt with professional agents and bankers.
 
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Ottawa, Ontario
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17 Mazda 6 GT
If you guys would like to continue the discussion regarding investments, feel free to create a thread in the Lounge with the "Off Topic" prefix. I'd be happy to move these posts to that thread.

EDIT: Thread created, all relevant posts relocated here.
Aw gee, and here I am, ready to input my 2 cents worth on real estate agents and such, seeing as how I deal with them as a contractor/handyman on a regular basis.
Oh well. See ya later.
Cheers.
 
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1st Gen

Hmmm
Contributor
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1991 Protege LX
IMO, the stock market is over valued by a lot. When the adjustment comes, it's going to be deep and long. I'm currently in low cost retirement accounts, with some equities. I need to realocate but am not sure what moves to make. I really need to chat with an advisor with some real credentials. I just keep putting it off. Record after record makes it easy to sit on my hands.
 

Avoidin Deer

Zoom Zoom, baby
Contributor
:
Central Virginia
:
2019 CX-5 Reserve
IMO, the stock market is over valued by a lot. When the adjustment comes, it's going to be deep and long. I'm currently in low cost retirement accounts, with some equities. I need to realocate but am not sure what moves to make. I really need to chat with an advisor with some real credentials. I just keep putting it off. Record after record makes it easy to sit on my hands.
I've tried to track historical PE Ratios by market. The data's tough to find. If someone can point me to a source I'd really appreciate it.

PE ratios.jpg


The DJIA is orange. I only found the data through 2004.
The S&P 500 is blue. I had data at July 2019 and have not looked for 1/1/20 yet.

From what I've gathered so far, I would not agree that the market is over-valued...not based upon PE at least. I'm surprised that all these retirees and 401(k) investors who are fleeing cash have not bid prices up higher than this. Quantitative Easing started in late 2008.

As I said before, lots of retirees' cash in equities. I'm one of them.

I read a Morningstar article that recommended:
-Keep 2 years of living expenses in cash
-Keep years 3-10 of living expenses in semi-liquid accounts (CDs, bonds)
-Keep years 11+ in the stock market

The idea is to have 10 years of cash needs not in equities so that when bad times hit, you can let the investments sit until the stocks recover. The Voya guy referred to this as The Bucket Method.
 
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1st Gen

Hmmm
Contributor
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1991 Protege LX
Warren Buffet said, "In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it's a weighing machine". The stock market is suppose to realign itself about every 36 months. It's been over 140 months. How could it be anything else.

The reason it might not be obvious is because this administration casts a shadow over everything they do, and because I believe there to be a currency bubble. (I'm making this up so don't go selling off cause I said it) If interest rates were doing what the market was telling them to do, they'd be a lot higher right now. Fact is, they're near zero and have been since 2008. That's no accident. The QE is continuing too which is what's propping up the repo market. The inverted yield curve that happened is being treated, not fixed. Then there's the national debt which is funding stock buyback schemes so CEO's can bolster their bonuses. We're going to need those automatic stimulus programs like unemployment, renters assistance, ect, but the national debt will be crazy by then.
(A trillion is a thousand BILLION) Then there's the consumer debt, mortgage debt, student debt, debt---

I'm no economist but I'm having a hard time believing the official story. IMO, the value of the dollar is going to have a coming to Jesus moment. I'm honestly at a loss as to what to do about it.
 
Remember that thread back in August where we discussed Mazda stock? Somehow Tesla stock has more than doubled in the same time period. Crazy. Wouldn't have called that, no position.

It is mildly entertaining to read the posts and rage on Twitter by those who got destroyed by shorting the stock. So many arguments and it doesn't matter.

A few months ago I had a long conversation with a Voya rep regarding a question on my account, and we got on the subject of investment mix. Attached is a document he sent me. They conceived their own investment strategy...it's detailed on Page 5.
 
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Occupied Calif.
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2019 CX 5 GT-R
I am a former Tesla employee and a stockholder. I own my own home outright and have several different investment/income accounts, some of them growth and some of them stable and safe. I was forced into early retirement last year but didn't much care as I was about sick of working anyway. By being disciplined and making the maximum contribution to my 401K and paying off my previous 30 year mortgage in one of the most expensive housing markets in the country in 21 years, sold that home and bought another for cash. I was able to accept my early retirement and not worry about how I was going to survive without the income I was used to making.
I too am amazed at the increase in Tesla's stock price in the last 8 months. Whether it hits the predictions of $3000, $5000, $7000 or even $15,000 per share by 2025 remains to be seen.
That said, I have created a target for the stock price that if reached, I will sell off enough shares to buy an exotic sports car as a toy to enjoy while I am still young enough to appreciate it.
 
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1st Gen

Hmmm
Contributor
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1991 Protege LX
The Dow is down over 1700 points at 8am pacific Daylight time, March 9th, 2020
That's for the day. lol
 

1st Gen

Hmmm
Contributor
:
1991 Protege LX
Maximum contributions to 401K
dollar cost averaging to Roth
waiting for awesome deals on blue chips
trying to imagine what the next economic revolution will be
3d printing
green tech
I wonder about GE now. They went great gonzo's under Obama because of green tech. This pres potties on them every chance he gets. If Biden, then---- Under Biden, we'll get more China almost certainly. What will that look like? More science too, I hope.

Thoughts?
 
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